We’ve got a big one coming up Saturday night as RIFC travel to Virginia to take on Loudoun United. We come into this game off of a disappointing 1-1 draw at home to Oakland Roots while Loudoun won their previous game 2-0 at Tampa Bay Rowdies. This will be our first meeting with Loudoun United with another to come in October. Every game is crucial from here on out as we make a playoff push here in our inaugural season. Let’s take a look at what to expect from us first.

Every game provides us with at least a couple of talking points as we head into our next matchup. Last game against Oakland Roots is no exception. We played really well that game but were only able to get a point via a late Albert Dikwa goal. The positive side of me is hopeful that we can take the good things from that performance and bring them with us to Loudoun. It’s obviously going to be a different game though with us on the road and playing a team who likely will actually come to play instead of trying to eke out a draw. I still back the team to put out a good performance, especially because of the mentality that the team has shown of late with Clay Holstad apologizing to fans for the Oakland result. It was a nice thing to hear even though I don’t think the team had anything to apologize for.

Per usual, we have a couple of questions regarding the starting 11 as we head into this one. Starting from the defense, the question still remains as to whether Morris Duggan will get his first start. I brought this up in the last Prematch Lookout and I’m going to keep bringing it up until we see more of him. It’s hard to imagine that he’s going to be just a depth piece on this team given the way that Khano Smith spoke about Duggan when the signing was announced. I personally have high hopes for him and think he can help solidify the defense and improve us in possession.

Moving up to the midfield we have to talk about one of my favorites, Marc Ybarra. Ybarra has played in every game this season, starting all of them except the home game against Hartford two games ago. He’s been a reliable presence in the midfield all season and has often gone deep into games. However, Ybarra hasn’t gone a full 90 since the 3-1 win at Birmingham Legion on July 17th. The addition of Zach Herivaux has allowed us to give Ybarra a bit of a break. It also had recently started to look like there might be competition for that defensive midfield spot. But Herivaux showed up on the injury report against Oakland and we’ve since found out that he has a broken bone in his foot and may miss 2-4 weeks. This is an injury that couldn’t have come at a worse time. We have a lot of important games coming up down the stretch of the season and we really need that depth in midfield. If the Oakland Roots game is any indication, we may see Grant Stoneman move up to midfield at times in Herivaux’s absence. The arrival of Duggan has made this possible and I’m curious to see how Khano manages minutes in the defensive midfield role in our upcoming games.

Lastly, we need to move to attack and look at Mark Doyle. Doyle has started our last 3 matches. In the last 2, he started over JJ Williams. Doyle has gotten himself into good positions but hasn’t converted any of his 4 shots on target over those last 3 starts. With Doyle not scoring, I’d like to see JJ back out there in this one. Despite not scoring goals either, I think JJ brings something to the team with his strength and hold up play that we don’t have in our other forwards. I’ve enjoyed watching his partnership with Dikwa grow this season as they both got healthy and I don’t think the scoring drought is a good enough reason to bench JJ.

There’s a pattern that I’ve seen with many of the teams that I’ve looked at recently. Teams will have a tough first 2 or 3 months of the season but then seem to figure it out and go on good runs of form over the next few months. RIFC are of course included in this and so are Loudoun United. Loudoun had 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses over their first 10 games this season. Since then, in 13 games they’ve won 7, drawn 4 and lost 2. The two losses have come in their last 5 matches however, as they lost 2-1 to Charleston Battery at home and 3-1 at Oakland Roots.

With Charleston being one of the best teams in the league, I was more interested in looking at the Oakland Roots loss. Loudoun controlled possession in that game, finishing with 64%. However, it only lead to one goal which actually came off a throw in. The ball was quickly crossed to the middle of the box after the throw in and Oakland left a midfield runner unmarked and it was headed in. As for Oakland’s goals, two came in transition and one came from a long ball over the top of the defense. This one in transition is one that stood out to me:

I feel that this is the type of goal we could score if we are able to get players like Noah Fuson and Jojea Kwizera out in transition. With Loudoun being a team that loves to have the ball, this may need to be our main mode of attack if we’re going to have success in this matchup. Luckily for us, playing in transition is something we’re more than capable of.

The most dangerous attacking players for Loudoun United are captain and forward Zach Ryan and winger Wesley Leggett. Ryan leads the team with 9 goals and Leggett isn’t too far behind with 7. While both are going to be crucial players in this game, I’m more interested in youngster Abdellatif Aboukoura. The 19 year old midfielder started in the DC United academy and made his debut for Loudoun United in 2021 when he was just 16. He just signed a 2 and a half year contract to stay with Loudoun. It’s always great to see promising young players come through this league and I hope he has success, just not against us in our two matchups this season. Aboukoura has 5 goals in 20 appearances so far this year. He may not start this one but he could be a huge factor off the bench and is definitely one to watch.

So let’s take a look at that big picture then, shall we?

We’re level on points with Loudoun United but they currently have the tiebreaker over us. A win in this game though could push us up to 5th depending on other results. I recently said that Louisville, Charleston and Tampa Bay were locks for the top 3 but I may have spoken too soon in the case of Tampa Bay. They’ve started to fall off a bit in recent games, as you can see that they are winless in their last 4. If Tampa Bay continue to slide, there could be a fight for both 3rd and 4th in the conference as we push towards the end of the season. Coming into the season, I just wanted us to make the playoffs. But seeing how we’ve grown as a team this year, I really do think we have a shot at a home playoff game, albeit an outside chance at this point.

I’m going with at 2-2 draw here. I would love to say that we get the win, but I think we’ll find it difficult on the road against a team that should control possession. While we’ve been really good in transition, I don’t think that’s going to be enough to get us a win. It’s just as important of a game for Loudoun as it is for us. And Loudoun are good at home with 7 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses this season. Obviously I hope I’m wrong here and that we can all celebrate bringing 3 points home. But in all honesty, I think I’d be ok with a draw here and a win against Loudoun at home later this season. That would give us the all important tiebreaker in what looks to be a really close race for positions in the standings outside of the top 2 in the conference. I’m excited for what should be a really good game Saturday night. Thanks for reading and all I have left to say now is UP THE TIDE!