It’s time for round 2. Or is it round 3? I guess it depends on how you look at it. After defeating Indy Eleven, RIFC have advanced to the 2nd round of the playoffs, the Eastern Conference Semifinals. And despite a very small scare in their first round game, Louisville City took care of business against North Carolina FC. That sets up a meeting between RIFC and Louisville on Saturday night. It’s round 2 of the playoffs but round 3 for these two teams. RIFC fought to a 0-0 draw at home against Louisville back in May. The 2nd meeting was a shock 5-2 win for RIFC at Lynn Family Stadium. Before we get to our deeper look at both teams, I want to look back on these first two matchups. After all, we’re the only team in the conference not to lose to Louisville this season.

When we first met, RIFC were 1-6-3 and Louisville were 7-1-1. Despite the two teams being on opposite ends of the standings, RIFC were able to get a 0-0 draw. Looking at the stats from the game, we had a slight edge in possession with 52% but were out shot 16 to 9 with 3 on target for Louisville and 0 for RIFC. However, we actually had the best chance of the game when Noah Fuson hit the post in the 23rd minute. You might be wondering why I’m even talking about this game since we probably can’t glean too much from it. It was back in May and both teams are surely different teams now. But that isn’t exactly the case. RIFC are definitely a different team, as we played a 4-2-3-1 in that game and had no Kwizera, Stoneman or Herivaux. But Louisville had close to same starting 11 in that game as they had last time out against NCFC with the only differences being a change at wingback and a change at CB with Arturo Ordonez currently injured. They also played the same system.

While our first meeting should provide us with some confidence, our second meeting is the one that everyone has been talking about and rightfully so. We went to Louisville and shocked the entire league with a 5-2 win back in June. It was only our 2nd win of the season but it propelled us to an 8 game unbeaten run. Louisville had 64% possession in this one with 27 shots and 10 on target. However, we took a 2-0 lead into halftime after a Clay Holstad rocket and a brilliant individual run and effort from Jojea Kwizera. Louisville piled on the pressure in the 2nd half and you would often see their defenders right outside our penalty area. We were able to get 3 more goals in the 2nd half through breaking forward in transition while Louisville were able to grab 2 themselves but never got closer than a 2 goal deficit. Both teams played basically the same system that they’re playing now. The differences once again came in the starting 11. Similar to the first game, we didn’t have Stoneman or Herivaux. Noah Fuson also came off the bench in this one and wasn’t the same player he is now. Louisville’s 11 was also different from their most recent game but overall it wasn’t too far off.

After all of that reminiscing and “research” on our last two meetings, I think we can draw an interesting conclusion. Louisville aren’t that different of a team now as they were back then. Yes they’ve added to their squad (more on that later) and they’re still the best team in the league. But I think they’re similar enough now as to when we last played them, which means that the confidence that we’re able to gain from our past results gets a little bit larger. Now that we’ve looked at our previous meetings, we can finally take a look at what’s currently going on for both teams.

We come into this game on the back of a great 3-2 win at Indy Eleven. JJ Williams was the hero scoring all 3 of our goals but Herivaux, Kwizera and Fuson also really stood out. As I said in probably every paragraph of the Postmatch Beacon, our left side was incredible. We’re going to need more of the same down that left side if we want to have any chance of success in this game. I would expect us to line up the same as we did last time out, with it looking something like this:

As I mentioned before when we were looking at our previous matchups, this will be our first game against Louisville with Stoneman and Herivaux. It will also be the first with Koke Vegas. Jackson Lee started in goal in both games and was heroic in our 5-2 win. I could understand an argument for Lee starting in this one because we will likely be under a lot of pressure and he had success against Louisville previously. But I don’t think there’s any chance you mess with who you’re starting in goal in the playoffs.

I’ve written before that the two biggest factors in our recent success have been the form of Noah Fuson down the stretch of the season and our new found versatility defensively. While I think Noah will be really important for us going forward, I want to focus more on our defense. The versatility that we have could pay major dividends for us in this game. If we do end up starting with the same 11, we have the option to move Morris Duggan out to LWB for Jojea Kwizera to shore things up defensively. This would normally push Frank Nodarse back to Duggan’s spot at LCB and Stephen Turnbull would come on at RWB. Turnbull came off injured last time out though, and I’m not sure if he’ll be available. If not, we might need to rely on Kofi Twumasi. I was surprised to see him out there against Indy Eleven but he did well. He came on as a midfielder in that game but he has played CB for us before, including our last meeting with Louisville. It’ll be interesting to see if he gets some minutes in this one.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention our midfield. The trio of Ybarra, Holstad, and Herivaux have been brilliant over the last 7 games. They’re going to need to be once again on Saturday night. We’ll need Herivaux and Holstad especially to be running all over the field, breaking up play. I’m a big believer in the idea that games are won and lost in the midfield and the midfield battle on Saturday night is going to be fascinating to watch.

So with all of this being said, the good news is I think we have a chance to win this one.

If we’re going to win this and move on to the Eastern Conference Final, we’ll need to be outstanding defensively and we’ll need to hit Louisville on the counter. That’s not to say we should be parking the bus from the outset, but we have to weather the early storm and try to once again use our strength on our left side to create dangerous opportunities. As we’ll see shortly, Louisville are an unbelievable attacking team and it’ll take a near flawless performance to take them down.

Where do I even start with Louisville City? With most teams in the league, you can look at their seasons and find some dips in form. But not with Louisville. They only dropped points in consecutive games once this season. Those were back to back draws against Las Vegas and RIFC. That means that other than that Vegas game, every draw or loss was followed up with a win. They’ve been a model of consistency.

Now it’s time for some basic numbers. Louisville finished the regular season on 76 points. That’s 12 more than the next closest team, the Charleston Battery. They scored scored 86 goals. That’s 18 more than the next closest team (Charleston of course). Louisville have only been shut out twice: once by Oakland Roots in a 1-0 loss and once by us in our 0-0 draw. They’ve also scored 3 or more goals in 15 games this season, including their 3-2 win last time out over North Carolina. This team is just scary going forward.

Defensively though, they aren’t elite. Still, they finished in the top half of the league with 43 goals conceded (tied for 10th fewest). It is because of this defense that at at times they’ve found themselves in up and down goal-fests. But more often than not, they’ll just outscore you.

As for players to look out for, you have to start with Wilson Harris. Harris leads the team with 19 goals this season. That’s good for 2nd in the league behind Charleston’s Nick Markanich. Louisville have several other dangerous attackers, with 5 players having at least 10 goal contributions. In addition to Harris, the other 4 are defender Sean Totsch, midfielders Taylor Davila and Jake Morris, and forward Ray Serrano.

One last attacker to talk about is Phillip Goodrum. Goodrum came over from FC Tulsa in August. It was the highest ever transfer fee between two teams in the league. Goodrum had 5 goals and 3 assists for Tulsa this season before adding 4 goals with Louisville over 11 games. He’s mostly been used off the bench for Louisville since he signed and I would expect that to continue on Saturday.

Look, I think we all know how great Louisville are. There really isn’t much else to say about them. I could throw some more stats your way or talk about some of their other great players. But I think it’s pretty obvious why they’re so good and why they’re going to be favored Saturday night. I’ll just close this part out by saying that for Louisville to win, they’ll need to keep their attack going and limit transition opportunities the other way. And yes, that’s basically the opposite of what I wrote for RIFC. I do think it’s really that simple. Louisville will control possession, and we will need to take our chances when we can.

I’m headed out on the road with Tide Talk’s very own FQB. We’re leaving for Louisville on Friday and will be there at Lynn Family Stadium on Saturday night. This trip is something I typically would have said no to but this team just means so much to me. Add in the fact that FQB so graciously took the lead and set everything up and I couldn’t say no. This will be the experience of a lifetime, regardless of the result.

Speaking of the result, I guess this is the part where I need to make a prediction. It’s a tough one and it brings up the age old question of do I go with my head or my heart? I’m going to mostly go with my heart here and say 3-2 RIFC in extra time. I expect Louisville to score but I don’t think they’re going to be able to stop us on the counter. As I said earlier, what’s giving me some confidence is the fact that we had success against Louisville earlier this season and we’re a better team now than we were then. The same doesn’t apply to Louisville. Still, this will be an extremely difficult game for us against the best team in the league. But I have faith in our guys to put on the performance we need on Saturday. Until next time, UP THE TIDE!