Part 1: The Three Body Problem

Welcome back, Rhode Island FC fans and Tide Talk faithful.

After a rollercoaster inaugural season, with surprising results, thrilling matches, a whole lot of draws, and a disappointing end, this offseason has given us a chance to catch our breath. While we near the end of the wait to watch our boys in amber and blue return to the pitch (in our shiny new soccer-specific stadium), we thought it would be a great time to dive into the state of the starting roster by introducing a new series that breaks down the big decisions facing Coach Khano at the start of the 2025 season.

In this series, the Tide Talk team will explore each major position group and discuss the options available to fill out the starting roster. There are a few assumptions and caveats that we need to get out of the way first, though.

1. We are going to assume that Coach Khano will stick to the same 3-5-2 formation we saw for most of the final stretch of the season and into the playoffs. 
2. It’s likely Khano will explore different combinations in the starting XI as a way to experiment and ensure players get minutes, but this blog series is meant to argue the merits of what should be the best and default starting lineup for the early part of the season. 
3. These blogs will be based on what we know today. Specifically, it does not predict any new signings nor can it predict what preseason injuries or knocks the players may pick up (which is hopefully none). 
4. Each writer will argue their assigned case, even if it’s not their personal pick. (See Timmy’s section below.)

With that out of the way, the first entry in this series will focus on the forwards. We have three worthy options up top with Noah Fuson, JJ Williams, and Albert “Chico” Dikwa, each with their own strengths and weaknesses. But only two can start in the preferred 3-5-2 system. Three bodies, but two starting spots… so which is the best pairing?

• Scott, Tide Talk’s transatlantic correspondent, will argue for the Noah and JJ pairing
• Timmy will hit you with the reasons that Noah and Chico should start together
• Finally, I will discuss why a JJ and Chico pairing might suit us best

So, join us as we start our deep dive into the team and get ready for what should be an exciting 2025 season. Be sure to follow along, chime in with your thoughts, and as always…Up The Tide!

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Scott, take it away:

The Great Leap Forwards: The case against Dikwa 

Great expectations has a dual meaning to me: it’s a book I pretended to read for English class, and it is the cause of minor heartbreak in the first season of RIFC.

This article will seek to make the case for a JJ Williams/Noah Fuson partnership. I shall seek to discharge this duty by explaining not only why this partnership is the best, but any other partnership demonstrably does not work.

Chico (Albert Dikwa), for all he has done for us, and that list is not inconsiderable, has unarguably fallen short of the expectations that he set as the 2023 golden boot winner for Pittsburgh. A tall and pacey forward, he was all but our only striking option for the first portion of the season.

Whilst it is foreseeable that Chico and the team will underperform in the beginning of RIFC’s first season, the team’s strength was defensive, securing many draws, but crucially scoring few goals. It is difficult not to associate this drought with our primary, maybe even sole striking option.

For me, Chico is a lot like Jazz, it’s about the notes you don’t play. Chico’s involvement was far more valuable off the ball, than in converting chances. His position in the half space created a sense of defensive urgency in opposition defenders that allowed for the ball to be moved through our wingbacks, allowing for a progression of play without being pinned down in the middle of the park.

However, this article is about our best forwards, and for that question my money is on our dynamic duo, the top scorer JJ, and our assist crazed Noah.

Noah, by virtue of playing the most out of the three, has had more of a chance to shine, and that he did, leading the league this season in assists, his contribution to our success is clear: he creates chances. Noah’s added value in chance creation cannot be understated.

It is the position of this author that Noah is an assumed starter in a front 2, a dependable player who is a nightmare for defenders. His pass accuracy (74%) is higher than either JJ or Chico, but crucially he is completing nearly double the amount of passes as either of them per 90. He isn’t a prolific goal scorer, but in the position that he is played most, this isn’t to be expected. 

So, who should be the target man for Noah? Instinctively, one would say JJ, his introduction to the team coincided with a turn in the team’s form. It’s also nice to have a domestic star striker, avoiding fear that they will be called up for various international duties. However, what do the stats say?

Both JJ and Dikwa scored 11 in league games, however JJ started in 6 fewer games than Chico. RIFC won the same amount of games when Chico started as JJ (11), though lost half the amount (6 with Chico, 3 with JJ). This stat is not decisive, certainly without explanatory context, but it does help paint a picture. I would happily overlook these correlations, and in fact other stats put both strikers at an almost level playing field:

JJ scores 0.5 goals per 90, to Chico’s 0.4.

JJ puts 1.05 shots on target per 90, to Chico’s 1.04.

Chico has made 12 successful passes per 90, to JJ’s 13, though Chico’s success rate at 70% is more impressive than JJ’s 54%.

However, what I want to see from our tall forwards is an ability to head the ball, which the team needs improvement from both. Far too many times did we see Kwizera end a Right Back’s career, and put a superb ball into the box, where there was nobody waiting for it. It is a lively debate as to whether this is the fault of the winger who crosses, or the forward who is to receive, this author falls firmly in the latter camp.

So how do JJ and Chico compare in aerial duels? The result isn’t even close.

JJ wins 6.54 (56%) per 90 whereas Chico wins 1.5 (37%).

With RIFC having a clear wingback strategy, we need a “number 9” who is willing and able to attempt and win aerial duels. JJ is clearly ahead (hah!) in this stat, but still needs improvement to convert a lot of these chances, Dikwa simply cannot coast on being a scrappy goal merchant, the league is too competitive, RIFC do not play through the middle enough, and RIFC (are rumoured to) pay Chico far too much for him to be an average tap in opportunist. ‘Big Al’ needs to use his head to score, and needs to put himself in positions to use his 6’2 frame to challenge for aerial balls.

Without serious improvement in this area, he is just about keeping up with JJ in the stats we have explored above, but as a late talismanic signing with all of the expectation that a golden boot winner brings, it is disappointing to discover that he delivers slightly less than JJ, at the cost of several of Alabama’s finest.

Given this, should Dikwa be picked? Absolutely. He has proven himself for the team time and time again, his commitment to putting the effort in is not in question. He runs his legs off most games, and has the fitness to keep up this impressive display game after game.

However, it is the position of this article that Dikwa should be a number 10 at best, or in fact be played even deeper into midfield. I cannot, in any good faith, make the argument that Chico should take Fuson’s spot in the front 2, and as such Chico must compete in the attacking midfield, making himself a threat in the half space, allowing ball progression on the wings. It’s either that, or he learns to head the ball.

In conclusion, RIFC has 3 capable forwards, with JJ and Chico being played in advanced and central positions, and Fuson being a more fluid playmaker who has bested the league in his ability to set up goals for others. Noah is unmatched in this position, with no serious argument forthcoming that any of the roster could unseat him. Thus, the only question is: Who do you have more faith in converting chances: JJ or Chico. I hope that this article has persuasively argued that the answer is emphatically JJ.

I would like to stress that although this article has been critical of Dikwa, I still see him as a valued member of the team going forward, and that his inclusion in the squad is welcomed.

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Great stuff there from Scott. Timmy, what say you?

I think most Rhode Island FC fans will agree that having Fuson in the starting lineup is a necessity heading into the 2025 season. The only question is which of our two forwards to pair with him and his evolving playmaking abilities.

There is a clear, compelling argument that it has to be Albert Dikwa. You don’t sign a player like Chico, the 2023 Golden Boot Winner with the Pittsburgh Riverhounds, to have him come off the bench. It doesn’t make sense tactically, nor financially. 

The pair of Noah Fuson and Albert Dikwa got off to a strong start in 2024, with Fuson assisting one of Dikwa’s two goals against Monterey Bay in our second game of the season. This is a great example of how perfectly Fuson’s creativity, vision, and passing range pairs with Dikwa’s ruthless finishing and ability to run in behind a defense. 

The problem is that, while the duo did play over 1,800 minutes together in 2024 and combined for only three goals, they weren’t playing in their best positions consistently during that period. For example, in the Monterey Bay game, Joe Brito not only started, but he occupied an average position higher up the field than Noah Fuson. When we deployed this formation, it limited Fuson’s ability to link up and provide service to Dikwa. 

It was nearly four months before Fuson and Dikwa combined again, with Dikwa using his chest to flick on a ball to Noah Fuson making a run on the edge of the box. It’s another good example of what these two are capable of: Dikwa can do more than just poach goals – he proved throughout 2024 that he is also willing and able to hold up play and create for others – and Fuson is a tidy finisher when given the opportunity to get forward playing as the Number 10. 

The third and final goal created by the pair of Fuson and Dikwa demonstrates the good things that happen when these two players are charging at the goal together. 

Dikwa and Fuson offer a better partnership with much more creativity and versatility, not only for each other but also to get other players involved with them. We did not get a true sample of Fuson and Dikwa in their best form playing together – as their most consistent starting minutes together came at the start of the season before the team had a clear identity. 

Dikwa scored half as many goals in 2024 as he did in 2023, and I think he deserves an opportunity to start the season alongside the Golden Playmaker to find out if he can return to his 2023 form. Dikwa is our most clinical finisher, even during what some may consider a “down” year for him last year:

In the regular season, Dikwa scored 10 goals on 59 shots (17%) last year, compared to JJ Williams with 6 goals on 50 shots (11%). Dikwa also led all Rhode Island FC players who played more than 900 minutes last season with 0.41 non-penalty goals scored per 90 minutes. When you start him alongside Noah Fuson, who created the most chances on the team with 61 (the next highest is Jojea Kwizera with 51), there’s no reason why he can’t score closer to 20 goals again in 2025. 

Let’s get Dikwa on the other end of some Noah magic and see how far they can take this team.

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Solid arguments from Timmy (who volunteered to take arguably the toughest of the three options). Now here are my thoughts on why Chico + JJ is worth considering.

While Fuson was a revelation last season, I’m here to make the case for why the best forward pairing for Rhode Island FC moving forward is JJ Williams and Albert Dikwa.

I believe the intention when signing Chico was to pair him with JJ and allow their complementary skill sets to wreak havoc on defenses. Chico is more mobile and better with the ball at his feet, while his 2023 form showed an innate ability to poach goals inside the box.  

JJ contributes in ways that go beyond the traditional striker, with strong holdup play, combination play, and aerial ability, making him invaluable and difficult to defend against. 

In fact, both players command a lot of attention from the opponent’s defenders, which in theory would allow each player more time and space to operate if both are on the field together. Put another way, having both of these players on the field at the same time creates space for others on the attack.

However, throughout the 2024 season JJ and Dikwa didn’t get to play together as much as we hoped, or at least not as much as the coaching staff envisioned after signing the then-reigning Golden Boot winner. Both players suffered from various injuries and limitations throughout the season, and seemed to rarely be fully fit at the same time.

It’s my contention that we are yet to see both players healthy and in form at the same time, which is why we should consider giving this pairing another chance. We’ve seen what each player can do individually, with both Dikwa and JJ scoring 11 goals throughout the season (including the postseason) to lead the team.

The biggest argument against this pairing is that we cannot leave Noah Fuson out of the starting lineup. I can’t disagree with that, but the beauty of Noah is that he is extremely versatile and effective no matter where he is on the field. He’s able to play in the midfield trio and he can also play either of the wing back positions, 

Going with a JJ and Chico pairing does not mean Noah is left on the bench. Instead, the coaching staff should find a dangerous spot for Noah elsewhere in the starting XI, with the ability to slide Noah into one of the forward positions when it is time to sub out JJ or Chico. 

Additionally, when looking at expected goals (xG) plus expected assists (xA) per 90 minutes, these three players lead the team when excluding outliers with few minutes:

Player	xG+xA
J.J. Williams	0.61
Albert Dikwa	0.60
Noah Fuson	0.48

JJ and Chico lead the pack with Noah up next. Now let’s look at actual goals plus assists per 90 minutes (excluding players with limited minutes):

Player	Goals+Assists
J.J. Williams	0.69
Noah Fuson	0.59
Albert Dikwa	0.54

Again, this same group leads the team with JJ at the top of the list and Noah and Chico with similar stats right behind him.

The point here is that JJ and Chico together not only provides the greatest potential output, but it also allows for all three players to be on the field at the same time. No other forward pairing combination allows for that possibility. 

As we heard Coach Khano say during the great postseason run last year, it’s all about getting your best players on the field. So why not find a way to get your top three producers of goal contributions onto the field together?

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Thank you to Scott and Timmy for contributing to the first in our short series of preseason roster decision blogs. And if you have made it this far, dear reader, thank you for taking the time to read our incoherent ramblings. We’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments, on social media, or in the Defiance Discord. Make sure to tell us who you think is the best pair of forwards to start the year.

Next up in our series is a deep dive into the famous midfield trio that helped propel the team to new heights last season. With the addition of one of the top central midfielders in the league, where does that leave the incumbents in terms of their place on the starting roster? Stay tuned to read more about this, and much more, here at Tide Talk.

Up The Tide!