RIFC are back at it with a third home game in the span of a 8 days when they take on Monterey Bay at Centreville Bank Stadium on Saturday. I just said this in the Riptide Report, but I’ll say it again: what a time to be alive. We’re really spoiled with 3 home games in a week and it’s going to feel like an eternity waiting 2 weeks for our next home game after that. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. As the sports cliché goes: you take things one game as a time. So with that being said, let’s look ahead to the matchup with Monterey Bay.

RIFC head into this game coming off a 0-0 draw with San Antonio last weekend and a midweek 2-1 loss in the Open Cup to the New England Revolution. Both performances were encouraging and it can easily be argued that RIFC were the better team in both games. Obviously scoring goals it what matters though and RIFC have struggled in the last two matches without JJ Williams.

With this being the team’s third game in 8 days, we should expect to see at least some rotation in this one. Where that rotation happens is anyone’s guess, but based on the expected availability of players, I think it might be something like this:

• Goalkeeper:
  • Koke Vegas returns to the 11 after sitting out the midweek game. Khano Smith confirmed in the press conference after the Revolution game what we all pretty much assumed, which was that Jackson Lee is the designated goalkeeper for cup games.
• Defense:
  • No rotation here, as Karifa Yao isn’t expected to be ready yet. New signing Aime Mabika, who made his debut as a 2nd half substitute on Wednesday night, should get some playing time here but I don’t expect him to start. Khano noted that Aime hasn’t really played since last year, indicating that it will likely be a gradual process to get him fully match fit.
• Midfield:
  • This where I think some actual rotation/changes from Wednesday could come in to play. Herivaux and Okiyoshi could start over Amos Shapiro-Thompson and Clay Holstad, who were both brilliant on Wednesday but expended a ton of energy. But it also wouldn’t shock me to see Clay get the start still, as that dude may just be a robot.
• Attack:
  • Without many options to make changes, I expect this to be the same as Wednesday. The difference being that Noah Fuson would start on the right and Jojea Kwizera on the left. Fuson started Wednesday on the left, with Kwizera on the right, but both players benefitted when they switched spots during the game. Albert Dikwa gets the start up top again, and I’m curious to see how long he’ll be able to go in this one. Khano mentioned that the plan was to take Dikwa off at halftime on Wednesday but he ended up going a little bit longer and was taken off around the hour mark. Hopefully he can keep increasing his minutes as he’s coming back from injury.

I think the most important thing for RIFC not only going into Saturday, but moving forward this season, is going to be what happens at the striker position. We can reasonably assume JJ Williams is going to be out long-term, although the club has not officially said anything on that yet other than Khano calling it a calf injury. With Albert Dikwa as the only like-for-like replacement, RIFC need him to recreate his form from 2 seasons ago when he won the Golden Boot with Pittsburgh Riverhounds. We’ve seen Dikwa drift wide at times during his tenure here, but I think if he can stay in between the width of the penalty area for the most part, he should be able to get chances. There is enough attacking talent around him.

RIFC need to keep the momentum going from their past two performances if they want to bring home their first 3 points at Centreville Bank Stadium. I’m confident the team can continue to do so, especially in front of what will be another raucous crowd.

Monterey Bay enter this game sitting 3rd in the Western Conference with 15 points from 9 games. After losing their opener to San Antonio FC, Monterey Bay won 3 in a row. They couldn’t quite continue that hot start though, with 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss over their last 5 games. I think overall this has been a pretty good start to the season. Their form over their last 5 games may not be as good as their first 4, but they’ve only lost to San Antonio and New Mexico United, who are the 2 teams ahead of Monterey Bay in the West.

What has stood out for Monterey Bay so far this year is their defense. Oakland Roots are the only team to score multiple goals against them in the league this season, which came in a 3-2 Monterey Bay win. And they’ve conceded 7 goals this season, which is good for 3rd fewest in the league and 2nd fewest goals per game. Their goal scoring numbers look pretty good on paper, with 12 goals scored this season. But 9 of those came in that 3 game win streak. Their attack has definitely come back down to earth recently and it’s their defense that largely kept them near the top of the conference.

As for players to watch out for, this who I’m keeping my eyes on:

• Nico Campuzano (GK)
  • Most recently with New England Revolution II in 2023 and Lexington SC last year when they were USL League One. First real opportunity as nailed-on starter this year and has looked good in net
• Nico Gordon (DF)
  • Nico number 2. Captain and leader at the back. 12 caps for Montserrat National Team and former youth player for the worst club in England. Will be hearing “Up the Villa” from me in 205, along with the usual “Up the Tide”
• Adrian Rebollar (MF)
  • Native of the Monterey Bay area and member of the team since their inaugural season. Important player through the middle. Not known for goal scoring but has 2 goals so far this year
• Ilijah Paul (FW)
  • MLS Super Draft first round pick in 2023 by Real Salt Lake. Leads team in goals with 4 to go along with 2 assists. In his first season with Monterey Bay
• Adam Larsson (FW)
  • Swedish forward signed ahead of this season. Continues trend of strikers from Scandinavian leagues coming to USL (Peter Wilson, Ronaldo Damus, Darren Smith etc..). Only 4 appearances so far this season, but paired with Paul last time out

I think roster-wise Monterey Bay is a pretty solid team. They look like a playoff team for sure, but I think they’re going to remain outside of the upper echelon of teams in this league. One other thing to mention before I go on and make a prediction is that Monterey Bay were eliminated by everyone’s favorite amateur side El Farolito in the 2nd round of the Open Cup. This means that they didn’t have a midweek game and last played on Sunday. The extra rest should help them against an RIFC team that just played on Wednesday.

I’m going with a 1-0 RIFC win. And no, that’s not just because I got some stick for picking against RIFC last game. I really do think RIFC can take this one but I think it could be a tight game. With Monterey Bay being strong defensively and RIFC being without JJ Williams, I think it might still be difficult to get goals. On the other side of things, Monterey Bay has cooled down in attack over their recent games and I think RIFC have enough defensively in midfield and along the back line to take care of business at home. My gut says a Noah Fuson goal assisted by Maxi Rodriguez is the difference here. I have no reason behind that, just trying to will it into existence.

I’ll be at lot M7 with the rest of defiance on Saturday afternoon. The plan is to not stick around too long and get to the stadium a little bit early, as we plan on having the kids with us. Can’t wait to see everyone there and hopefully get the first 3 points at Tidewater. Until then, UP THE TIDE!