RIFC are set for a meeting with Lou City Saturday night at Centreville Bank Stadium. It’s the second of back to back matchups against the top two teams in the league. And it comes at a critical time, as we’re entering the final stretch of the season. Here’s what to watch out for Saturday night at Tidewater:

These two teams last met on June 11th at Lynn Family Stadium in Louisville. Lou City took the lead through an Aiden McFadden header in the 20th minute before RIFC equalized 7 minutes later via a nice hustle play from Joe Brito. Brito tracked down a long ball from Aldair Sanchez and played it across the box where it was deflected in by Louisville defender Kyle Adams. Lou City got their winner in the 2nd half when they played through RIFC with a passing move that started from goalkeeper Damian Las. It ended with a nice Ray Serrano finish.

RIFC had more possession in this game, with 57%. But they only had 4 shots with 2 on target and zero big chances created. They also had only 8 touches in the opposition box compared to 22 for Lou City. All in all, it was the kind of performance that we’ve come to expect from RIFC this season. It will definitely need to be different this time around if RIFC hope to come away with anything from this one.

Availability

Last weekend’s match saw the return of Grant Stoneman, who came off the bench for the final 9 minutes plus stoppage time. Khano Smith rates him very highly, so it’ll be interesting to see how he fits back into a defense that has been very good this year. Speaking of the defense, Frank Nodarse is rumored to be back soon and his biggest fan (me) is hoping to see him on the bench for this one.

Jojea Kwizera and Matthew Corcoran will both be out on Saturday. Kwizera was called up to the Rwanda National Team and Corcoran is in Spain with the US U-20 National Team. Both will be missed. Kwizera is one of the few wide attacking options RIFC has and Corcoran has looked good in possession, helping to further the style of play Khano has been looking for. It’ll be interesting to see who starts in their place and I’ll be glued to my phone at 6pm Saturday night to find out (as I always am).

• Jagermeister Cup vs Birmingham Legion
  • RIFC controlled this game on a rainy night at Tidewater with 63% possession. They created 3 big chances and scored one, with Dwayne Atkinson’s goal in the 74th minute being the difference
• Disaster in Hartford
  • RIFC had even more possession this time, with 67%. But they only had 1 shot on target and no big chances created. Hartford blew them away with a 3 goals and it felt like a new low point
• Bounce back against the Battery
  • With much less possession in this one (33%), RIFC were almost forced to be more direct when they did have the ball. And that worked to their advantage in what was arguably the best result of the season. The defense limited Charleston’s chances and JJ Williams powered in a header for his first goal at Tidewater to make the difference

KEY QUESTION

Can RIFC replicate the Charleston performance while having more possession?

There has been a lot of discourse this season around possession and style of play. RIFC have sought to have more of the ball this year and have succeeded, as they are 5th in average possession this season (54.5%) compared to 12th last season (49.7%). It isn’t as large of a jump as I expected but it still indicates a move towards trying to control games by having more of the ball. However, RIFC are on pace for only 21 goals this season compared to last season’s 56. If you take into account that last season was 34 games compared to this season’s 30, the pace for 2025 would still only be 24 goals in a 34 game season.

This is all to say that an increase in possession hasn’t led to better performances or more goals. How directly correlated the two are is difficult to say. But it’s hard to look at last week’s Charleston performance and not see that despite not having the ball as much, RIFC were still very good defensively and going forward, they actually created some meaningful chances. What remains to be seen this weekend is if RIFC can still defend well and create chances while having a lot more of the ball. Lou City are 20th in the league in average possession with 45.7%, just ahead of Hartford in 21st with 44.5%. And sadly, we all saw how that last meeting with Hartford went.

• Goals Galore in Miami
  • Lou City took a 1-0 lead 12 minutes into this one through Phillip Goodrum. The game then saw 3 goals in 4 minutes, with Miami scoring in the 22nd, Lou City regaining their lead a minute later, and Miami equalizing again in the 26th. Louisville went on to get two 2nd half goals to put the game away
• Draw at home
  • Lou City dominated this game by the numbers, with 22 shots (3 on target) and 3 big chances compared to 5 shots (1 on target) and zero big chances for New Mexico. Some great goalkeeping from New Mexico’s Kris Shakes was the difference
• Back to normal at Indy
  • Romario Williams put Indy Eleven ahead just 2 minutes into this one. But an equalizer just before halftime from Aiden McFadden was a dagger for Indy Eleven to take. Lou City went on to score in the 50th and 56th minutes and easily handled this one 3-1

KEY QUESTION

Can Lou City keep their foot on the gas having already clinched a playoff berth?

Yes, you read that right. Lou City have already clinched a spot in the playoffs as a result of their 3-1 win over Indy Eleven last time out. Meanwhile, RIFC are hoping a late season run can get them into the playoffs. Such is the difference between these two teams right now.

It’s hard to imagine any complacency creeping in though. Louisville do still have the top spot in the Eastern Conference (and league) to secure. RIFC’s win over Charleston Battery last weekend did Lou City a favor, as it helped them increase their lead over the Battery to 4 points. Also, forward Phillip Goodrum is tied for 2nd in the golden boot race with 12 goals and midfielder Taylor Davila is tied with 3 other players for the golden playmaker with 8 assists. Both still have a lot to play for and manager Danny Cruz will certainly make sure his team is ready to go.

In the end, I have this one finishing in a draw. Admittedly, it’s pretty optimistic from an RIFC standpoint. But hey, this is an RIFC blog. I do think the boys in amber and blue can put forth a solid defensive performance, but not enough to keep Lou City from scoring. On the other end, I expect JJ Williams to come out on fire and be a nuisance for Lou City’s defense.

Up Next

As always, I’ll be back here with the Riptide Report for an immediate reaction to the game. The pod will as usual be at 8:30 pm on Sunday night. No matter the result, it’s always a great time, especially if you can listen live and make the YouTube chat. Until next time, UP THE TIDE!