Hey everyone, it’s me again. I’ve made a last minute decision to predict each first round matchup this weekend in the USL Championship Playoffs. Why? I don’t really have a good answer. I think I’m just too excited to watch it all unfold. There are no guarantees that I continue this after this week, especially if our beloved RIFC lose on Sunday. But for now, let’s jump right into the predictions:

Eastern Conference

Louisville City (1) vs Detroit City FC (8)

Lou City are quite simply the best team in the league. After their disappointing finish to 2024, losing in the Eastern Conference Semifinal to RIFC, they’ve pivoted to being a dominant defensive team in 2025. Lou City have only conceded 19 goals all year and have lost just once, a 2-1 defeat to North Carolina FC back in June. In short, they are the overwhelming favorites to win it all.

Detroit City have stumbled into the playoffs with just one win in their last 7 games. It took a 1-1 draw at the Tampa Bay Rowdies and an Indy Eleven loss at Orange County on the final night of the season for them to hang on to a playoff spot. Their 33 goals scored this season is 18th in the league and they’re coming up against a juggernaut in Lou City.

Louisville City 3-0 Detroit City

Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4) vs Hartford Athletic (5)

The Pittsburgh Riverhounds have once again had a great defensive season, finishing with the 3rd fewest goals conceded in the league (28). It’s that strong defense that has been a hallmark of Bob Lilley teams. Speaking of Lilley, it was announced that he was placed on administrative leave on October 10th, just 24 hours before Pittsburgh’s game against Indy Eleven. Assistant Rob Vincent has taken the reins since then and in his three games, Pittsburgh have two wins and one draw.

Hartford have gone on quite a run through the second half of the season. They’ve won 10 of their last 15 games to go with 1 draw and 4 losses. Much of this has been done by conceding possession to their opponents and using their physicality and athleticism to counter attack. However, they’ve lost their last two games at Tampa Bay and at Louisville. The two losses cost Hartford a home playoff game.

The Riverhounds won both regular season matchups between the two sides, with a 1-0 win in at home in March and a 2-1 win in Hartford just over a month ago. The last meeting between these two teams was marred by an incident in second half stoppage time. Hartford’s Marlon Hairston and Pittsburgh’s Danny Griffin got into a verbal altercation and Hairston alleged that Griffin used racially insensitive language. The game was abandoned but the result was upheld. A league investigation would conclude that the allegation was “unsubstantiated” and Griffin was cleared. Due to nature of this last meeting, I would expect a fiery game on Saturday.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1-0 Hartford Athletic

Charleston Battery (2) vs Rhode Island FC (7)

See the Prematch Lookout

Charleston Battery 2-1 Rhode Island FC

North Carolina FC (3) vs Loudoun United (6)

North Carolina finished third in the Eastern Conference due to three results on the final weekend: North Carolina’s 1-0 win at Loudoun, Hartford’s loss in Louisville and Pittsburgh’s draw with Phoenix. It’s pretty remarkable that North Carolina found themselves with the third most points in the conference. They’ve had injury issues to deal with and none of their numbers really stand out. They’re just a tough, well-organized team. Credit to their manager John Bradford.

For the first half of the season, Loudoun looked like the clear third best team in the East. We all knew going in that Louisville and Charleston were going to take the top two spots. But Loudoun were led by a breakout attacker in Abdellatif Aboukoura. Aboukoura has slowed down after missing some time due to injury in July. Since his return in August, he’s only scored and assisted once with both coming in a substitute appearance against Tampa Bay.

With these two teams meeting last weekend it should make for a good one on Saturday. It’s a tough one to call, but I have more confidence in Loudoun’s difference makers.

Loudoun United 2-1 North Carolina FC

Western Conference

FC Tulsa (1) vs Colorado Springs Switchbacks (8)

Tulsa have had an outstanding 2025. After finishing 10th in the West in 2024, then head coach Mario Sanchez moved to the front office to be technical director and his assistant Luke Spencer took over as head coach. Tulsa had a pretty sizable roster turnover ahead of the 2025 season and it paid off. Their biggest and most impactful signing was forward Taylor Calheira who came over from New York City FC II. Calheira led the team with 15 goals, tied with Charleston’s MD Myers for third most in the league. Like the other best teams in the league, Tulsa have been consistent from start to finish this season. They had an impressive 14 game unbeaten run over 3 & 1/2 months from early May to late August. They’re a team that is comfortable letting their opponents have the ball. Tulsa had less than 50% possession in 21 of their 30 games this season and only lost once in those games. Style should be an important factor in this one.

Colorado Springs had a disappointing 2025 season after finishing 2nd in the West in 2024 and winning the title with their 3-0 win over RIFC in the final. They never got things going in 2025 and came close to missing the playoffs entirely, only qualifying on the final day of the season. The Switchbacks never went more than 3 games unbeaten all year and finished the season 17th in both goals scored and fewest goals conceded. Despite this, they were able to grind out enough results to back into the playoffs.

These two teams last met in Tulsa last weekend where Colorado Springs fell 3-0. I can see something similar happening here.

FC Tulsa 2-0 Colorado Springs Switchbacks

El Paso Locomotive (4) vs Phoenix Rising (5)

Led by manager Wilmer Cabrera, El Paso play an exciting brand of soccer. They finished the season with 47 goals scored, good for 6th most in the league. Forwards Amando Moreno and Wilmer Cabrera Jr lead the way with 10 goals each. El Paso like to play with the ball at their feet and are third in the league in average possession.

Phoenix Rising also play an exciting brand of soccer and have scored 48 goals this season, good for 4th most in the league. Their goals have come from a variety of sources with Charlie Dennis and Ihsan Sacko leading the way with 7 each. Hope Avayevu is the main provider with 10 assists on the season, falling one short of the Golden Playmaker, Indy Eleven’s Aodhan Quinn. What probably kept Phoenix from finishing higher is that they were the USL Championship’s Draw Kings in 2025, drawing 13 games. If any of those turned into a win, they would be hosting El Paso this weekend.

Both matchups between these sides this season were thrilling. The teams played to a 4-4 draw in El Paso back in March and a 3-3 draw in Phoenix at the end of August. If those games are anything to go by, this should be another fantastic watch.

Phoenix Rising 3-2 El Paso Locomotive

Sacramento Republic (2) vs Orange County SC (7)

Sacramento Republic had the 2nd best defensive record in the league, conceding just 27 goals all year. Over 25% of those goals (7) have come in their last 5 games, however. If they can tighten things back up for the playoffs, Sacramento are going to be a very tough team to beat. Going forward, they’re led by Russell Cicerone (8 goals) and Rodrigo “Roro” Lopez (6 assists). Lopez is retiring after the 2025 season and is a USL legend. After their run to the Jagermeister Cup Final, it feels like Sacramento are ready for another run in the playoffs.

Orange County are another team that snuck their way into the playoffs. A 5 game unbeaten run to end the season certainly helped. Their 2-1 win over Indy Eleven on the final night of the season is what pushed them to 7th and gave them this trip to Albuquerque. Forward Ethan Zubak was Mr. Consistency, leading the team in goals for a second straight season with 11, matching his 2024 output. It was an overall decent season for Orange County but not much really jumps out in terms of results.

Sacramento Republic 2-0 Orange County SC

New Mexico United (3) vs San Antonio FC (6)

New Mexico United finished atop the Western Conference in 2024 and again had a great year in 2025. They had a poor 4 game losing streak in the summer but outside of that have been pretty consistent all year. New Mexico also come into the playoffs on a 7 game unbeaten run with 4 wins and 3 draws. They are the best possession team in the league and know how to move the ball quickly to generate chances. Greg Hurst and Talen Maples lead the team with 7 goals each. Mukwelle Akale is always dangerous going forward and leads the team with 10 goal contributions (4 goals, 6 assists).

San Antonio FC have backed their way into the playoffs. Sure, they got a nice, feel good 5-2 win at home over El Paso to close out the season. But they hadn’t scored a goal in any of their previous 5 games and had lost 4 straight before their win last weekend. San Antonio’s second half of the 2025 season saw them win 4, draw 4, and lose 7. They’re another case of a team that started the season well (winning their first 4) but couldn’t find consistency for the rest of the year. Jorge Hernandez leads the team in both goals (11) and assists (6). If San Antonio want to have any chance of getting past New Mexico, he will need to step up big time.

New Mexico United 2-0 San Antonio FC

Thus ends my first round predictions. Admittedly, I didn’t really make any bold picks here. I chose 6 of the higher seeds to advance with only two upsets of Loudoun over North Carolina and Phoenix over El Paso. And that Phoenix game I think is really a toss up that could go either way. I’d be lying if I told you that the fact I only had one upset up until that point didn’t factor into my decision making there. In the end, even if I get these picks wildly wrong, I just hope that we have a great first round. I may or may not return with this next week. You’ll just have to stay tuned to find out. Thanks for reading and as always, UP THE TIDE!