The time has come. Playoff time. All of the work the team has done through the regular season has lead to this. A first round matchup at Indy Eleven at 1pm on Sunday afternoon. For RIFC it is of course our first ever playoff game. Meanwhile for Indy Eleven, it is their first at home since 2019. The two teams played twice this season and while some are of this opinion:

I think those games are relevant enough to at least give them a quick look before doing a deeper dive on each team.

Our first meeting with Indy Eleven was a thrilling 3-3 draw at Beirne Stadium on July 5th. Indy Eleven had a 2-0 lead within the first half hour but two Frank Nodarse headers in the 2nd half brought us level at 2-2. It looked like Tyler Gibson had secured all 3 points for Indy when he scored in the 79th minute but Isaac Angking scored with pretty much the last kick of the ball to rescue a point for RIFC.

Our second meeting was the infamous 1-0 loss in Indianapolis on August 7th. We came into that game on a season-best 8 game unbeaten run and had drawn 1-1 at Detroit City FC in our previous game. It was a rare midweek game for us and some heavy rotation meant that we never really got anything going. Indy Eleven’s Sebastian Guenzatti provided the only goal of the game and they got their 3 points.

It goes without saying but both teams are different teams now as we head into the playoffs. For Indy Eleven, both Aodhan Quinn and Jack Blake missed our first meeting and were just returning from injury in our second meeting. Quinn has been the team’s captain since his return to the midfield and Blake leads the team in goal contributions with 10 goals and 4 assists on the season. As for RIFC, we’ve made some major adjustments to our starting 11 since those two games. And I know no one needs reminding of this, but we made 6 changes for that 1-0 loss. I think some of that had to do with the upcoming derby against Hartford but it was also a midweek game where some rotation was necessary. But with that being said, let’s take a look at what to expect from both teams as we head into the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals.

We’re coming into this game on some good form. But I wanted to start off by looking at our season as a whole. The big turning point for us was our 2-2 draw against Memphis 901 FC. We threw that game away in disastrous fashion. In a way, you could look at that one as rock bottom for us. We had worse performances prior to that game but throwing away our 2 goal lead could have been catastrophic for the rest of our season. It would have been our 2nd win on the season but instead we started out with 1 win, 4 losses and 9 draws through our first 14 games.

The team had a 10 day break after the Memphis loss and responded with a remarkable 5-2 win in Louisville. That got the tide rolling and we went on our 8 game unbeaten run. Our form then dipped starting with our loss to Indy Eleven. We lost 3 of our next 7 games. But we got back on track and concluded the season with 4 wins and 2 draws.

It’s that current form that should excite us as we head into the playoffs. I think there’s a lot of credit to be handed out for our recent performances but I’ll start with Noah Fuson. Noah has been on fire for us lately and his performances lead to him capturing the Golden Playmaker Award for most assists in the league. Noah finished the season with 8 goals and 10 assists. Nearly half of those goal contributions have come in our last 6 games, with 4 goals and 4 assists over that span. It’s worth noting he missed one those 6 games, our 0-0 draw against Loudoun. I can’t emphasize enough how important Noah is going to be for us in the playoffs. We will go as far as he will take us.

Khano Smith also deserves a ton of credit for our recent form. He has made several adjustments throughout the season but perhaps the most important one is the implementation of our Adult Midfield™ at the start of this 6 game unbeaten run. For anyone wondering, that’s our 3 central midfielders: Marc Ybarra, Clay Holstad and Zach Herivaux starting together. This change was in a way forced by the emergence of Herivaux since coming over from Tampa Bay back in July. At the time, we had been playing two central midfielders and the thought (at least from me) was that Herivaux would be a player off the bench to give Ybarra and Holstad some rest when needed. Instead, Herivaux produced some consistent performances over the next 2-3 months and eventually the Adult Midfield™ was born on September 21st when we beat FC Tulsa 2-1.

Khano has really done a great job of finding ways to put our best players on the field. The midfield is one example but he’s also figured it out when it comes to our defense. This one revolves around another in-season addition: Morris Duggan. Duggan arrived on loan from Minnesota United and projected as a left sided center back in our back 3. The issue there was that my favorite player Frank Nodarse had been playing in that position alongside Karifa Yao and Grant Stoneman. Khano has recently made the decision to utilize Duggan and Nodarse as wingbacks when necessary. Duggan started at LWB against Charleston and Nodarse started at RWB last time about against Miami. This versatility has been key for us and I would expect us to utilize it on Sunday.

It really is quite the lineup. This is what I would expect from us on Sunday:

You may notice that this is the same lineup we had last time out against Miami FC. The only possible changes I could see happening would be Turnbull at RWB instead of Nodarse and/or Dikwa at forward instead of Williams. But I think this is what we’ll see from the start. As I mentioned above, we have a lot of versatility. If we need to be more defensive on our left side, we can bring off Kwizera, put Turnbull in at RWB and move Duggan to LWB and Nodarse to LCB. As for who plays next to Fuson, I think it’s really a toss up but I went with JJ Williams here. He’s coming off a 3 goal game and has shown good chemistry with Fuson. I fully recognize that those 3 goals were against Miami FC, arguably the worst team in league history, but he still had to put the ball in the back of the net. It should give him some confidence heading into this one. Albert Dikwa is also coming off of an injury and although he also scored last game, I think he can be used as a substitute in this one.

Overall, I think we’re a dangerous team because we have a good defensive base, a strong midfield that can clog up passing lanes, and an attack lead by the best playmaker in the league this season. If we play to the best of our ability we should be a really difficult out in the playoffs.

Indy Eleven started the season slowly, winning just 1 of their first 7 games, drawing 2 and losing 4. They then went on to win 8 in a row before only getting 1 win in their next 11 games. That 1 win was the 1-0 win over us. And then finally, they ended the season with 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses over the last 8 games. Admittedly, I cherry picked some of these stretches of games. But I think it shows how up and down the season has been for Indy Eleven overall.

Looking at those last 8 games, the two best results were arguably the two draws. Those were a 2-2 draw at home against Louisville and a 0-0 away at Detroit City FC. The wins came against 4 non-playoffs teams in Miami, Loudoun, Birmingham and El Paso. The losses were at North Carolina FC and at Tampa Bay Rowdies last time out. So while this recent run of form has been pretty good, a lot of their success has come against teams below them in the table. And that pretty much pans out over the season as a whole.

So what does this mean for our matchup on Sunday? Well, we are a team below Indy Eleven in the table, albeit just barely. So even though Indy Eleven haven’t fared that well against the better teams in the league, I think they provide a tough matchup for us. They have several players that I think we need to look out for on Sunday.

I already mentioned Aodhan Quinn and Jack Blake earlier. Blake is tied for the team lead in goals with 10 but 6 of those came from the penalty spot. Augustine Williams is the other player with 10, but 9 of his goals were from open play. However, 5 of his goals came in two recent matches against Miami FC and Louisville City. What this all really shows is that it’s kind of unpredictable where Indy Eleven will get their goals. But they do get goals, as they tied for 7th in the league this season with 49.

Where Indy Eleven haven’t been as good is defensively. They conceded 50 goals this season, which puts them 20th in the league. Only Birmingham, Hartford, Oakland, and of course Miami FC have conceded more. This is despite having a pretty talented goalkeeper in Hunter Sulte. The team numbers are a bit skewed by backup goalkeeper Yannik Oettl, however. Oettl started 8 games this season, many of them early in the year, and conceded 19 goals. Sulte has conceded 31 goals in 26 games. He’s definitely a goalkeeper who is capable of taking over a game, so we need to be wary of that.

If you’re looking for an x-factor for Indy Eleven, it has to be Maalique Foster. Foster is a quick, skilled attacking player who usually finds himself on the wing. We’ve played against Foster once this season, but not with Indy Eleven. Foster arrived in Indy in late August on a transfer from Colorado Springs. He looked dangerous against us out in Colorado earlier this season and he’s a player I’d definitely look out for on Sunday.

Overall, I think Indy Eleven are a pretty good team. They’re capable of scoring goals from many different sources and they have quality and experience in their midfield. I think they’ve struggled a bit defensively at times though and are likely to give up some goals unless Sulte has a great game between the sticks.

I think this is going to be a close one. I know some of us here at Tide Talk think that Indy is not a good team but for this game on Sunday I disagree. Indy Eleven aren’t a team that’s going to make a deep playoff run. They haven’t done well against the teams above them in the league, including losing both games to Charleston by an aggregate score of 9-2. But they’ve performed well against the other teams in the league. And I think they match up well against us while playing a similar system. I know we can’t glean a whole lot from our previous two matches but it still stands that they haven’t lost to us yet this season.

That being said though, I think we take this one 2-1. I think the biggest key for us is going to be our midfield trio of Holstad, Ybarra and Herivaux. If we can win that midfield battle, we should be able to create some quick transitions and get Noah Fuson on the ball in dangerous areas. As of late, that typically leads to goals whether he’s assisting or scoring them himself. I think it will be hard for us to keep a clean sheet, especially away from home. But at the end of the day, I just think we’re the better team.

I’ll be at Providence Brewing on Sunday with the rest of the Tide Talk crew. I’m so looking forward to seeing everyone there and hopefully celebrating our first playoff win. It’s been really difficult trying to wait for this game to come but the playoffs start with a late game tonight (Friday) and a great slate of games on Saturday. I’m going to catch as many of those as I can to tide me over until Sunday. But until then, the only thing I have left to say is: UP THE TIDE!