In the words of Yogi Berra, “it’s deja vu all over again”. RIFC will face the Pittsburgh Riverhounds for the 2nd straight time on Saturday. This time, it’s in Pittsburgh for the 2nd of 4 games in the group stage of the Jägermeister Cup. As a quick refresher, here is where the teams stand after the first group games:

RIFC sit in 1st place after a 4-1 win against Westchester SC, while Pittsburgh lost their first game to 1-0 to Detroit City FC. As a reminder, all 6 group winners advance and there are only 2 wild card spots. That puts a lot of emphasis on winning your group. And while RIFC are in first, a lot can happen in the next 3 games and a poor result against Pittsburgh could be devastating. Conversely, Pittsburgh probably need a win if they hope to advance in the tournament. As we head into this big game, here is what to expect out of both teams:

RIFC suffered a first home loss of the season last time out with their 1-0 defeat to Pittsburgh. It was a tough one to take because on paper it looked like a winnable game. But the issues that have plagued the team recently persisted. Outside of some good early chances for Maxi and Clay, the attack looked out of sorts. That is going to have to change for RIFC to get a different result in Pittsburgh.

With this being another weekend game in the cup, both teams have a full week of rest. This means they can approach the lineup as if it’s a league match, so there shouldn’t be much rotation. For RIFC, this is what it could look like:

• Goalkeeper
  • Jackson Lee gets the start. Despite Koke’s great start to the season, Lee has been playing cup games so far this year and I see no reason to switch that up
• Defense
  • I’m going to keep arguing that this is the best back 4 for the current system. I like the CB pairing of Nodarse and Mabika and Rio and Aldair have owned their roles. Expect to see Karifa Yao in this game at some point as well as he returns from injury
• Midfield
  • Herivaux got the start next to Holstad last game but I still want to see Amos and Clay together again
• Attack
  • I’m getting sick of saying this, but the team needs more from Kwizera, Dikwa and Fuson. There just aren’t viable replacements at the moment

Keys to the Game

• Get a Goal
  • Continuing the pattern with a lot of my keys recently, this one is really obvious. But given that RIFC have failed to score against the Riverhounds in all 3 of their previous meetings, this had to be said. At this point, I don’t really care how it happens. It can come from the midfield, a set piece, or even an own goal. We can worry about the forward line later
• Be Alert to the Danger
  • RIFC have conceded too many goals this year from being lackadaisical. The lone goal last game came from not closing down quickly enough. It wasn’t as egregious as some other goals conceded this year, but it still could have been avoided
• Don’t Concede Early
  • The worst thing you can do against a Bob Lilley team is concede first. Charleston Battery are the only team this season to get points against Pittsburgh after going down a goal

After the 1-0 win last weekend, Pittsburgh should have some confidence heading into this one. They got their goal and defended well, which historically has been the Lilley formula. I covered their season so far in the previous Prematch Lookout, so there isn’t much to say here. But the tl;dr is that it’s been a relatively slow start for Pittsburgh this year but they have plenty of time to turn things around. Last year at one point they went 10 games without a win and followed that up with a 10 game unbeaten run, so really anything can happen.

As for players to look out for, I’m going to repeat a few from last week’s blog and switch out a couple.

• Eric Dick (GK)
  • Still one of the best goalkeepers in the league. One of the most important players on the team
• Danny Griffin (MF)
  • Scored the lone goal in the meeting last week. Good all-around midfielder with an eye for goal. Top scorer on the team this season
• Robbie Mertz (MF)
  • Solid attacking midfield player. Not as versatile as Griffin. Typically gets more assists than goals, though he has 1 goal and 0 assists so far this year
• Augie Williams (FW)
  • Striker signing who has struggled to get going this season with 1 goal so far. Dominated by Aime Mabika last game
• Bertin Jacquesson (FW)
  • Most talented attacking player for Pittsburgh. Hampered by an injury in preseason but appears to be fully fit now. Can be major game-changer

Keys to the Game

• Score the First Goal
  • As mentioned in the RIFC section, Pittsburgh are great at holding a lead. With RIFC struggling to score goals and having never scored against the Riverhounds, a 1-0 lead could go a long way for Pittsburgh
• Limit Chances from Outside the Box
  • Basically the same as a key from last week just with a different name. But it still applies here. Pittsburgh need to make sure that they limit outside the box chances from Clay Holstad, Noah Fuson, and Maxi Rodriguez in particular. Lately that is where the best opportunities for RIFC have come from
• Express Yourself Bertin!
  • If you couldn’t tell from the last blog, or this one, I’m a pretty big fan of Bertin Jacquesson. Not as much as a similar player from Loudoun who is 2nd in the league in goals this season, but a big fan nonetheless. I think he is THE key player for Pittsburgh this season. If he can return to his form from when he arrived last season, this team can be really dangerous. Pittsburgh should be looking to get him on the ball and let him cause issues for the RIFC defense on Saturday

Against my better judgement, I do have RIFC getting a goal in this one, but drawing 1-1 after 90. Because this is the Jägermeister Cup, there are penalty kicks after every draw, with the winner getting an extra point. I have Pittsburgh winning the shootout and coming away with 2 points. As much as I have faith in Jackson Lee to make some saves for RIFC, I don’t have the same confidence in RIFC’s penalty takers. The only players I’d be confident in are Maxi Rodriguez and surprisingly Aime Mabika, who scored some penalties in college at Kentucky.

As always, I’ll be back with the Riptide Report right after the match. The Postmatch Pod will follow Sunday night and Timmy will have his player ratings for a closer look at the game. Until next time, UP THE TIDE!