“Never Say Die”

Throughout the 2024 season, it was hard to go more than a few matches without hearing the phrase that embodied Rhode Island FC. Whether is was fighting back to get a draw, netting a late game winner or pulling off the seemingly impossible, there was almost a level of arrogance with how much this team believed in itself.

Marketing videos were made, T-Shirts printed and Rhode Island FC rode this attitude all the way to the USL Championship Finals in their inaugural season. What made it the perfect message was that we all believed in it on and off the pitch.

Having the ability to come back time and time again is not just about confidence. It’s an act of defiance. Spitting in the face of your seemingly predetermined fate. It’s about having the courage to fight when you should stop and walk into arenas that the rest of the league fear. It’s about playing a style of soccer that says no matter what happens, we know we can score the next goal.

Turn the page just eight months and the courage that defined a team, fan base and state seems to have faded.

The New Normal

Through 17 matches, RIFC have scored just 14 goals. Their 0.71 goals per 90 is the worst in the league. The team with the most clean sheets in the league this season? Whoever is playing Rhode Island FC with nine.

And for the comeback kids? So far, Rhode Island FC have conceded first in 10 league matches. They are 0-2-8 in those matches, scoring just three goals.

It’s not just the courage to fight back that has seemed lacking, it’s the courage to take risks on the pitch at all. Rhode Island FC rank second in the league in average possession but have generated the third least big chances. They are ranked fifth worst in XG (expected goals) per match all while completing the fifth most passes per match.

We like to keep the ball but don’t do much with it. In part, this is working. While we’re not scoring many goals, we’re not giving up chances, averaging the second best XGA (expected goals against) in the entire league. But, at the end of the day, the 1 point per game that Rhode Island are averaging right now would fall far short of a playoff berth. Something has to change.

Stuck in Safety

To diagnose this issue, let’s start at the back and work our way up the pitch.

RIFC currently attempt over 486 passes per match. While goalkeeping accounts for a fraction of this total, they set the tone for the way we play. Starting the season with Koke in net, his passing data looks almost identical year over year, completing roughly the same amount of passes and long balls per match. However, when we look at Jackson Lee’s data, we have our first clue that something has changed.

While Jackson has been maintained an almost identical passing accuracy, he is averaging almost three less accurate long balls per match this season. A big catalyst for this change has been the lack of JJ Williams during his time in net. But, being more predictable by almost always playing out through the defense limits the chaos factor that we found last season when the team went long more often from the goal keeper.

Moving up the pitch, while they are middle of the pack in average passes in the defensive third per match, RIFC attempt the fourth and fifth most passes in the middle and attacking thirds. The ball is getting up the pitch quick enough, but what happens when we get there?

First, we’re 12th and 15th in passing accuracy in the middle and attacking thirds. A lack of player movement, unpredictable spacing and a leisurely tempo make us easy to play against. Teams can just sit back and wait for RIFC to force a pass instead of making them uncomfortable. It’s a big reason why teams playing against Rhode Island have the third most interceptions in the league.

When we do attempt to get at the opposition, not much is coming out of it. To quote the great John Morissey from USL Tactics, “RIFC has crossed on just 5% of their passes in the attacking half, the fourth-lowest share in the USL.” This trend continues as they are the fourth lowest at passes in the attacking third leading to a touch in the opposition box, third worst at turning passes into corner kicks and eighth worst at turning passes to shots. The ball is either not getting into dangerous areas that can turn possession into chances or gets stuck out on the wings. These images from the fantastic USL Analytics on Blue Sky illustrate that clearly:

And before you say “this is because we’re trying to play with possession”, let’s take a quick look at the Charleston Battery who have an almost identical possession number as RIFC. They rank first in goals scored, second in XG For, first in big chances created, seventh in passes leading to touches in the opposition box, fifth at passes leading to corners and first in passes leading to shots.

While I’m throwing a lot of stats in here to make my point, the eye test bears this out. These matches have been, at best, difficult to watch. Most weeks on the Tide Talk show, the crew trying to find new ways to talk about how we just don’t create chances or score. Seriously, imagine trying to make slide after slide for the same problem. That’s why last week Hugo Bacharach felt like a revelation. Taking players on, breaking lines and making the other team nervous.

Onward

If RIFC are going to turn things around it needs to start now. The team has the talent but not the belief. The ball needs to move quicker, more runs need to be made and they need to instill a level of fear in their opponents. The quick one twos that disrupted opponents, the rapid cutbacks from the byline and the chaos long balls all need to find their way back.

The leaders of this team need to step up and cultivate that attitude. We know this team is more than capable but the belief needs to be built on the pitch. It starts Saturday with the squad showing that they have that same belief, that same arrogance and that same level of courage to start taking risks on the field.

Note: Big shoutout to American Soccer Analysis for a lot of the data included in this article.