RIFC travel down to Cary to take on North Carolina FC in the penultimate weekend of the 2025 USL Championship season. Both teams have it all to play for, with RIFC hoping to secure a spot in the playoffs and North Carolina FC aiming to secure a home playoff game, having confirmed their spot in the playoffs two weeks ago. Here’s what to expect from this crucial matchup:

The teams last met back in June in what would end up being RIFC’s first win at Centreville Bank Stadium after failing to win in their first 5 home games in all competitions. RIFC took a 1-0 lead after 18 minutes via an Albert Dikwa header. Aldair Sanchez provided the assist with a great ball into the box. Sanchez struggled defensively though, and NCFC consistently attacked RIFC’s left side. It paid off in the 35th minute when Rafa Mentzingen cut in onto his left foot and put the ball past Jackson Lee in goal. RIFC corrected this issue in the 2nd half with the substitution of Frank Nodarse for Sanchez. Nodarse had his best half of the season, defending well and consistently causing issues for NCFC going forward from left back. He eventually won a penalty in the dying moments and Maxi Rodriguez converted to secure the 3 points.

Availability

5 players were listed on the availability report before last weekends game: Will Meyer, Joe Brito, Rio Hope-Gund, Zachary Herivaux, and Jojea Kwizera. To me, two of these players stand out as ones to watch:

• Zachary Herivaux
  • Herivaux came off after an hour in his last appearance two weeks ago against Las Vegas. He didn’t appear to be injured when he came off but being that he’s missed time this year, it’s possible there’s a recurring issue he’s been dealing with. In his absence, RIFC put Hugo Bacharach and Clay Holstad in the midfield and it worked wonders against Tampa Bay last time out. Hopefully Zach is available for this one, even if it ends up being off the bench. He’s proven to be an important player for this team when he’s out there
• Jojea Kwizera
  • Jojea has been away on international duty with Rwanda. He last played on Tuesday in South Africa where he came off after 52 minutes. All signs point to him being ready to go on Saturday and it’ll be interesting to see if Khano inserts him back in that starting 11 right away. Aldair Sanchez looked really good (as did the whole team to be fair) in the 5-0 win last weekend against the Rowdies. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the same starting 11 out there against NCFC with Kwizera coming off the bench

The Big Question

Can RIFC prove they’re back against tougher opposition?

RIFC are unbeaten in their last 5 games with 4 wins and 1 draw. The wins all came against teams who are currently below the playoff line in their respective conferences. The draw was against a solid El Paso Locomotive team who are 4th in the Western Conference heading into the weekend. RIFC will now need to show they can do it against an opponent in North Carolina who are fighting for a home playoff spot.

It’ll certainly be a much tougher game for RIFC than they had against Tampa Bay. This game should be nowhere near as open. North Carolina are comfortable sitting back and allowing their opponent to have more of the ball. The numbers bear this out as NCFC are 21st in the league in possession. RIFC also won the possession battle when these teams last met with 56% in their favor. So it’s really going to come down to if RIFC can break down a defense that will have numbers behind the ball.

As mentioned at the top, North Carolina FC are currently fighting for a home playoff spot. Heading into the weekend, they sit 5th in the Eastern Conference. They’re only one point behind Loudoun United in 4th. However, despite their solid season so far they’re in danger of sliding further down the table and finishing 7th or 8th due to recent form.

Out of these three results, the loss to Detroit City FC hurts the most. It handed Detroit City the tiebreaker over NCFC after the two teams drew their first matchup. That is what leaves open the possibility of North Carolina falling down to 8th. Of course the loss to Phoenix doesn’t help either. North Carolina really need to get on track soon or else they may end up with a first round match at Charleston or Louisville, something all Eastern Conference teams are desperate to avoid.

Different Faces

North Carolina FC have undergone some changes lately with their starting 11 that has seen some players we’re used to seeing out there either on the bench or out of the team completely.

• Jake Mcguire -> Oliver Semmle
  • Goalkeeper Jake Mcguire started 30 of North Carolina’s 34 games last season and 17 games this season. He has been replaced by Oliver Semmle who has started the last 9 games since coming to North Carolina on loan from MLS side Philadelphia Union
• Rafa Mentzingen -> Ahmad Al-Qaq
  • This change is a forced one, as Mentzingen went down injured with an apparent knee injury back on August 9th against the Tampa Bay Rowdies and hasn’t played since. For the most part it’s been Al-Qaq taking over that right-sided defense/midfield role that Mentzingen regularly occupied. Al-Qaq is in his first professional season, having previously played at the University of North Carolina. He had a trial with NCFC ahead of this season and was signed to a one-year deal
• Evan Conway -> ?
  • Evan Conway leads his team in goals this season with 9 and is tied for most goal contributions with 10. However, he hasn’t played in the last two matches. He was on the bench for the Detroit City game but wasn’t in the squad last time out against Phoenix. North Carolina do have some other capable players in attack, namely Rodrigo Da Costa, Oalex Anderson, Pedro Dolabella and mid-season signing Thomas Roberts. Even so, Conway’s availability for this match will be something to watch

The Big Question

Has the goalkeeper change been detrimental to North Carolina’s season?

As we’ve seen, North Carolina haven’t been on the best of form to close out the season. And quite simply, they need to change that. I think in order for North Carolina to turn things around, they need to stick to what has worked for them: getting players behind the ball and beating their opponents on the counter. However, it might not be that straightforward. And it’s due to a potential change in philosophy that can be tied to their goalkeeper change.

To put it simply, Mcguire is a better shot-stopper than Semmle. His save percentage is 69.7% and he’s conceded 1.18 goals per 90 this season. Semmle on the other hand has a save percentage of 59.4% and has conceded 1.45 goals per 90. So why is Semmle starting? The advantage he brings is that he’s better on the ball. Semmle’s pass accuracy is 73.6% and on long balls it’s 43.6%. For Mcguire, it’s 56.7% and 36.4%.

I’m certainly down to debate the modern passing goalkeeper vs pure shot-stopper question. It’s one of the big discussion points in soccer currently. But regardless of where you sit on the issue, I think we can agree it’s difficult to change philosophies on the fly. And to me, that’s what has happened here with North Carolina. It’ll be interesting to see how it all plays out on Saturday.

I have a third straight 2-0 loss for North Carolina FC in this one. And more importantly, 3 points for RIFC that put us in the playoffs. The primary reason here is that I just don’t like how NCFC are trending lately and I love how RIFC have been doing. It’s pretty much as simple as that.

Up Next

You should know the drill by now. I’ll be here with the Riptide Report following the game, Timmy will have player ratings and the podcast will be back Sunday night. Hopefully we’ll all be celebrating a playoff berth that for most of the season never looked like a certainty. Fingers crossed. UP THE TIDE!