Yes, I am actually following through on this. What a first weekend we had in the USL Championship Playoffs. Not only were there some massive upsets but the biggest margin of victory in any of the games was New Mexico’s 2-0 win over San Antonio. And regarding those aforementioned upsets, they’ve blown these playoffs wide open. Especially in the Eastern Conference. So without further ado, here are my thoughts and my attempt at predicting the unpredictable:
Eastern Conference
Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4) vs Detroit City FC (8)
The Pittsburgh Riverhounds advanced from round 1 with a victory on penalties over Hartford Athletic. It was the only Eastern Conference game I predicted correctly, though I had Pittsburgh getting a goal and winning 1-0 instead of it going to penalties 0-0 with Pittsburgh winning the shootout. The game was also the only one (outside of RIFC of course) that I watched in its entirety. Because of that, I can confidently say that objectively Pittsburgh were the better team and deserved to go through. Hartford had some early chances but the longer the game went on, it was clear they were wearing down and Pittsburgh looked more and more likely to get a winner. The Riverhounds have proven that Highmark is one of the toughest places to get a result as a visitor in the USL. They’re going to need to lean on that this weekend against Detroit.
Detroit City FC made it here against all odds. They pulled off arguably the greatest upset in league history by taking down favorites Louisville City 1-0 at Lynn Family Stadium. While I did not watch this one in full, I did have my eye on it while watching Pittsburgh. Detroit’s Devon Amoo-Mensah scored the goal from a well-worked corner in the 34th minute. From then on, there was a constant onslaught from Lou City as they were peppering Detroit’s defense with shots. They only ended up getting 3 of those shots on target but the one in the 65th minute forced this incredible save from Detroit goalkeeper Carlos Saldana:
Pittsburgh and Detroit met twice this season in June and July. The Riverhounds took the first meeting 2-0 at home and the second match ended in a 0-0 draw. As for the game this weekend, I think it’s going to be a close, defensive one. I’d be really surprised if either team gets more than one goal. My concern for Detroit is that as amazing as their performance was in the first round, I don’t think it’s something they can replicate this weekend. They will likely have more of the ball than they did against Louisville and will need to show they can do something with it. It’s going to be especially difficult at Highmark. So for that reason….
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1-0 Detroit City FC
North Carolina FC vs Rhode Island FC
For an in depth look, check out the Prematch Lookout
Rhode Island FC 1-0 North Carolina FC
Western Conference
FC Tulsa (1) vs Phoenix Rising (5)
Tulsa got here by taking down the 2024 champions, the Colorado Springs Switchbacks. The 8 seed Switchbacks presented a bigger challenge than I thought and pushed Tulsa all the way. Both teams had good chances to score in the first 90 minutes but we unable to do so. Tulsa’s Stefan Lukic would score from a header off a free kick in the 92nd minute to put his team ahead. However, Colorado Springs kept fighting and almost sent this one to penalties right at the death:
It was a win that showed Tulsa’s resiliency. They showed an ability to play on the front foot and to also defend for their lives. Tulsa are looking like potentially the most dangerous team remaining in the playoffs.
Phoenix Rising got past El Paso Locomotive last weekend to move on to the conference semifinals. After the two regular season meetings ended 3-3 and 4-4, I was expecting a high-scoring game. Instead, we saw yet another 1-0, with Phoenix getting the lone goal on a late penalty. The result was deserved, as Phoenix were the better team over the 90 minutes.
Tulsa and Phoenix have already met three times this season. In the league, Tulsa won the first meeting (in the season opener) 1-0 at home and the second meeting in June ended in a 1-1 draw in Phoenix. The teams also played in April in the US Open Cup and that one also ended in a 1-1 draw. Phoenix went on to win 4-2 on penalties.
As for this weekend, I think this is the hardest game to call. I expect Phoenix to put up a really good fight against the league’s best team remaining. The problem for them though is that Tulsa are already battle-tested. As I already mentioned, Tulsa’s first round match was far from a cakewalk. After predicting 1-0 in each of the two Eastern Conference games, I’m happy to say I think we’ll see more than one goal in this one.
FC Tulsa 2-1 Phoenix Rising
New Mexico United (3) vs Orange County SC (7)
After finishing third in the Western Conference, New Mexico United had a first round matchup with San Antonio FC. There isn’t too much to say about this one other than that it was the only game in the first round that saw multiple goals, finishing in a 2-0 New Mexico win. The other seven matches in the first round consisted of four 1-0 games and three 0-0 draws that went to penalties. New Mexico were flying in this one and probably could have scored 3 or 4. San Antonio never looked like they had a chance.
Orange County pulled off an upset in round one by taking down Sacramento Republic. The match itself wasn’t all that exciting with few chances between the two sides and it going to penalties at 0-0. Before the penalties however, both teams went down to 10 men right at the end of first half of extra time with Sacramento’s Roro Lopez and Orange County’s Chris Hegardt getting sent off. The even more dramatic moment came when Orange County subbed off goalkeeper Colin Shutler right at the end of second half extra time in favor of Tet Kadono. The move worked out brilliantly as Kadono saved three penalties in seven rounds and Orange County came away with a 5-4 victory.
The regular season meetings between the teams were a 3-0 New Mexico win in Irvine in May and a 3-3 draw in Albuquerque last month. For this weekend’s game, I can see multiple goals again. Something about the Western Conference, I suppose. I’m a big fan of New Mexico attacker Mukwelle Akale and I think he’ll be a difference maker here. I’m also not sure how much confidence I have in Orange County’s defense. So for that reason…
New Mexico United 3-1 Orange County SC
And there you have it. My picks for the conference semifinals. I went with mostly favorites again here but I do have reasons for that. Detroit City and Orange County didn’t show me enough in round one to make me think they’ll pull off another upset this weekend. I know that sounds crazy, particularly in Detroit’s case. But it’s just where I am with those two teams. As for the other two, I think Phoenix have a decent shot at winning in Tulsa but I just feel like there’s something intangible that Tulsa have. And with RIFC, I’m really just basing the prediction on what I saw last week. The talent is there and the toughness of the group really showed down in Charleston.
I will be back next week to predict the two conference finals. Yes, even if RIFC are not in one of them. It’s been a fun exercise even if I only picked half of the games right last week. Until next time, UP THE TIDE!
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