It was the opening day of the Round of 16 at this World Cup.  After a Round of 32 that was full of excitement, I can’t wait to see where things go from here.  It’s down to two games a day in this round and we got to see one of the hosts (Canada) take on a favorite in Morocco, and the prohibitive favorite France face Paraguay.  Here’s a look at how it all went down:

Morocco 3-0 Canada

The result ended up being what I expected but how we got there was surprising.  I have to give Canada some credit here.  They came out strong in the first half and were the much better team.  It was really all about their press.  Morocco had no answer for it and they struggled to get out of their own half for the entire first 45.  Their only option was to play it long and hope they could win the second ball.  It rarely worked and it became even harder after the 22nd minute when forward Ismael Saibari was forced off due to injury.  Despite all of this success for Canada, they weren’t able to take advantage where it counted.  They had multiple chances in the first half with the best coming in the 11th minute when Yassine Bono did well to save a low shot from Tani Oluwaseyi. 

After going into halftime 0-0, Canada had to be feeling pretty good.  But less than five minutes into the second half they were made to pay for not getting their goal.  After a foul down Morocco’s right attacking side, Achraf Hakimi slid his free kick across to middle and just outside of the box.  Azzedine Ounahi was there to hit in first time into the bottom corner.  Morocco had a 1-0 lead.  They looked like the better team after the goal but Canada weren’t without their own chances.  Still, it was Ounahi who would step up again for Morocco as he finished off a classic counter-attacking move in the 82nd to put the game away at 2-0.  Soufiane Rahimi would score his second goal of the tournament deep into stoppage time to make it 3-0.

As I said at the beginning here, Canada deserve some praise for how they came out in the first half.  And overall it was a really successful tournament for them.  Coming in, Canada had never gotten a point at a World Cup and had only scored one goal, which came in 2022.  They leave this World Cup having scored 9 goals (six against Qatar) and getting two wins, one draw, and two losses.  I do still have my issues with Jesse Marsch, who after this game said that he’d rather be us (Canada) than them (Morocco) and seemed to imply that Morocco just sat back all game.  It was another ridiculous soundbite from Marsch, who seems to have one every time there’s a microphone in front of him.

Morocco got the job done and are now on to the quarterfinals.  They’ve had a fantastic tournament so far having not lost yet and finishing second in their group only on goal difference.  They are now one win away from matching their 2022 tournament where they made the Semifinal.

France 1-0 Paraguay

The outcome I think most of us expected but you have to credit Paraguay for making it tough on France.  Paraguay had a hilarious 19% possession in the first half.  They came out with the sole purpose of muddying up the game and frustrating France.  For the first half, it worked perfectly.  France only produced 0.15xG despite all of their possession. 

It worked for the most part in the second half too.  France ended the half with 0.43xG if you take away one huge moment.  Around the 65th minute, Desire Doue was taken down in the box.  After a lengthy VAR review, France were awarded a penalty.  Kylian Mbappe stepped up and buried it, unsurprisingly.  That ended up being all it took for France to book their spot in the Quarterfinals.

Paraguay should be proud of their tournament.  Aside from their 4-1 loss to the US in their opener, their defensive tactics were successful. It’s what got them a knockout round win and only a close loss (at least on the scoreboard) to France.  Going out in the Round of 16 was probably their ceiling.

France just keep cruising along.  This game did cause them some problems but they did well to not get too frustrated and to keep going.  It eventually paid off.  It’s been a fantastic tournament so far for France and they’re still my favorites to win the whole thing.

Tomorrow’s Predictions

• Brazil 2-2 Norway (4-3 Pks)
  • This should be a close one.  Brazil are the better team overall but you can’t discount Erling Haaland.  I think Haaland will get a dramatic goal at some point to keep his team in it but in the end Brazil take it on penalties
• England 2-0 Mexico
  • I foolishly picked against Mexico in the previous game against Ecuador.  But I’m going to do it again.  I think if England can keep Mexico from scoring early, they’ll be able to show their quality which is a significant level above Mexico and get a couple goals to end their tournament

So that’ll wrap up day 1 of the Round of 16.  We now know our first Quarterfinal matchup, which as expected is France vs Morocco. What an incredible game that should be.  There are two more exciting games tomorrow and I can’t wait.  Until then!