Two numbers decide Rhode Island's October
Eastern Conference, 1 matches left. One path is still fully in Rhode Island's hands. The other isn't — and the reason comes down to a single tiebreaker.
Rhode Island have clinched a playoff spot.
Guaranteed top eight in the East with 1 to play.
Would have clinched a home playoff game — it can no longer happen.
A perfect 1-0 run is worth 3 points, 5 short of the 8 it would take. 4 clubs have already finished above Rhode Island's ceiling: Tampa Bay, Detroit, Charleston, Louisville. A home playoff game is off the table.
20,000 simulated finishes to the season, every remaining East fixture played out with the league's own tiebreakers.
(top 8)
(top 4)
points
90% playoff chance
Chance of a playoff spot and a home game, given where Rhode Island's points finish. The highlighted row is the guarantee line (42).
| Final pts | How often | Playoffs | Home game |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 35% | 100% | 0% |
| 43 | 29% | 100% | 0% |
| 45 | 36% | 100% | 0% |
Max is the total if a club wins out. Odds come from the simulation.
| # | Club | GP | W-L-D | GD | Pts | Max | Playoffs | Top 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 29 | 17-5-7 | +24 | 58 | 61 | 100% | 100% |
| 2 | Detroit | 29 | 14-7-8 | +13 | 50 | 53 | 100% | 100% |
| 3 | Charleston | 29 | 15-9-5 | +20 | 50 | 53 | 100% | 100% |
| 4 | Louisville | 29 | 13-9-7 | +8 | 46 | 49 | 100% | 100% |
| 5 | Pittsburgh | 29 | 12-11-6 | +2 | 42 | 45 | 100% | 0% |
| 6 | Rhode Island | 29 | 12-11-6 | +10 | 42 | 45 | 100% | 0% |
| 7 | Hartford | 29 | 9-7-13 | +1 | 40 | 43 | 100% | 0% |
| 8 | Miami FC | 30 | 9-12-9 | -10 | 36 | 36 | 82% | 0% |
| 9 | Indy XI | 29 | 9-13-7 | -5 | 34 | 37 | 18% | 0% |
| 10 | Birmingham | 29 | 6-11-12 | -5 | 30 | 33 | 0% | 0% |
| 11 | Loudoun | 29 | 5-11-13 | -11 | 28 | 31 | 0% | 0% |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 29 | 5-18-6 | -28 | 21 | 24 | 0% | 0% |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 29 | 3-21-5 | -44 | 14 | 17 | 0% | 0% |
- Oct 24atHartford
Updated Oct 22, 2026, 10:50 AM ET. Standings are rebuilt from ESPN results, regular season only. "Secures" numbers assume every rival wins out and any tie goes against Rhode Island unless the first tiebreaker, wins against Eastern Conference opponents, is already settled. Odds use a Poisson goals model with home advantage and no injury or form adjustments.