Two numbers decide Rhode Island's October
Eastern Conference, 10 matches left. One path is still fully in Rhode Island's hands. The other isn't — and the reason comes down to a single tiebreaker.
Points from 10 matches secures a playoff spot.
That's roughly six wins and two draws, or any combination of results adding up to 20 points, out of the 10 games left. No help required from anyone else.
Points would guarantee a home playoff game — but the math doesn't work.
A perfect 10-0 run only produces 58 points, 1 short of 59. Indy XI can match Rhode Island's ceiling exactly and currently leads the head-to-head (1 meeting still to play) — so even a flawless finish isn't enough on its own. It can still happen with help: simulations give a home playoff game a 37% chance.
20,000 simulated finishes to the season, every remaining East fixture played out with the league's own tiebreakers.
(top 8)
(top 4)
points
playoff chance
Chance of a playoff spot and a home game, given where Rhode Island's points finish. The highlighted row is the guarantee line (48).
| Final pts | How often | Playoffs | Home game |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 1% | 81% | 0% |
| 37 | 2% | 92% | 0% |
| 38 | 3% | 94% | 0% |
| 39 | 4% | 98% | 0% |
| 40 | 5% | 99% | 0% |
| 41 | 7% | 100% | 0% |
| 42 | 8% | 100% | 1% |
| 43 | 9% | 100% | 5% |
| 44 | 9% | 100% | 15% |
| 45 | 10% | 100% | 31% |
| 46 | 9% | 100% | 49% |
| 47 | 8% | 100% | 69% |
| 48 | 7% | 100% | 85% |
| 49 | 5% | 100% | 95% |
| 50 | 4% | 100% | 98% |
| 51 | 3% | 100% | 100% |
| 52 | 2% | 100% | 100% |
| 53 | 1% | 100% | 100% |
Max is the total if a club wins out. Odds come from the simulation.
| # | Club | GP | W-L-D | GD | Pts | Max | Playoffs | Top 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 22 | 13-3-6 | +18 | 45 | 69 | 100% | 100% |
| 2 | Charleston | 23 | 12-8-3 | +18 | 39 | 60 | 100% | 96% |
| 3 | Detroit | 21 | 10-5-6 | +10 | 36 | 63 | 100% | 88% |
| 4 | Pittsburgh | 23 | 10-9-4 | +2 | 34 | 55 | 99% | 28% |
| 5 | Louisville | 22 | 9-8-5 | +1 | 32 | 56 | 99% | 22% |
| 6 | Hartford | 21 | 7-5-9 | -1 | 30 | 57 | 98% | 17% |
| 7 | Indy XI | 20 | 8-8-4 | 0 | 28 | 58 | 95% | 12% |
| 8 | Rhode Island | 20 | 8-8-4 | +7 | 28 | 58 | 99% | 37% |
| 9 | Miami FC | 22 | 5-10-7 | -14 | 22 | 46 | 4% | 0% |
| 10 | Loudoun | 22 | 3-8-11 | -13 | 20 | 44 | 2% | 0% |
| 11 | Birmingham | 20 | 3-9-8 | -6 | 17 | 47 | 3% | 0% |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 20 | 4-12-4 | -14 | 16 | 46 | 1% | 0% |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 22 | 2-15-5 | -31 | 11 | 35 | 0% | 0% |
- Sep 5vsLouisvilleHome
- Sep 12atSporting JAX
- Sep 19vsMiami FCHome
- Sep 26atCharleston
- Sep 30vsIndy XIHome
- Oct 3atBrooklyn
- Oct 10atDetroit
- Oct 14vsLoudounHome
- Oct 17vsPittsburghHome
- Oct 24atHartford
Updated Sep 5, 2026, 3:14 AM ET. Standings are rebuilt from ESPN results, regular season only. "Secures" numbers assume every rival wins out and any tie goes against Rhode Island unless the head-to-head series is already decided. Odds use a Poisson goals model with home advantage and no injury or form adjustments.