Two numbers decide Rhode Island's October
Eastern Conference, 9 matches left. One path is still fully in Rhode Island's hands. The other isn't — and the reason comes down to a single tiebreaker.
Points from 9 matches secures a playoff spot.
That's roughly six wins, or any combination of results adding up to 18 points, out of the 9 games left. No help required from anyone else.
Points would guarantee a home playoff game — but the math doesn't work.
A perfect 9-0 run only produces 56 points, 1 short of 57. Indy XI can match Rhode Island's ceiling exactly and currently leads the head-to-head (1 meeting still to play) — so even a flawless finish isn't enough on its own. It can still happen with help: simulations give a home playoff game a 32% chance.
20,000 simulated finishes to the season, every remaining East fixture played out with the league's own tiebreakers.
(top 8)
(top 4)
points
playoff chance
Chance of a playoff spot and a home game, given where Rhode Island's points finish. The highlighted row is the guarantee line (47).
| Final pts | How often | Playoffs | Home game |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 1% | 70% | 0% |
| 36 | 1% | 79% | 0% |
| 37 | 2% | 92% | 0% |
| 38 | 3% | 96% | 0% |
| 39 | 5% | 98% | 0% |
| 40 | 6% | 100% | 0% |
| 41 | 8% | 100% | 0% |
| 42 | 9% | 100% | 2% |
| 43 | 10% | 100% | 7% |
| 44 | 10% | 100% | 18% |
| 45 | 10% | 100% | 36% |
| 46 | 9% | 100% | 56% |
| 47 | 7% | 100% | 77% |
| 48 | 6% | 100% | 87% |
| 49 | 4% | 100% | 97% |
| 50 | 2% | 100% | 98% |
| 51 | 2% | 100% | 100% |
| 52 | 1% | 100% | 100% |
Max is the total if a club wins out. Odds come from the simulation.
| # | Club | GP | W-L-D | GD | Pts | Max | Playoffs | Top 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 23 | 14-3-6 | +20 | 48 | 69 | 100% | 100% |
| 2 | Charleston | 23 | 12-8-3 | +18 | 39 | 60 | 100% | 97% |
| 3 | Detroit | 22 | 10-5-7 | +10 | 37 | 61 | 100% | 87% |
| 4 | Pittsburgh | 23 | 10-9-4 | +2 | 34 | 55 | 100% | 33% |
| 5 | Louisville | 23 | 9-8-6 | +1 | 33 | 54 | 99% | 23% |
| 6 | Hartford | 22 | 7-5-10 | -1 | 31 | 55 | 99% | 19% |
| 7 | Indy XI | 21 | 8-8-5 | 0 | 29 | 56 | 94% | 10% |
| 8 | Rhode Island | 21 | 8-8-5 | +7 | 29 | 56 | 99% | 32% |
| 9 | Miami FC | 22 | 5-10-7 | -14 | 22 | 46 | 5% | 0% |
| 10 | Loudoun | 22 | 3-8-11 | -13 | 20 | 44 | 2% | 0% |
| 11 | Birmingham | 21 | 3-9-9 | -6 | 18 | 45 | 2% | 0% |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 21 | 4-13-4 | -16 | 16 | 43 | 0% | 0% |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 23 | 3-15-5 | -30 | 14 | 35 | 0% | 0% |
- Sep 12atSporting JAX
- Sep 19vsMiami FCHome
- Sep 26atCharleston
- Sep 30vsIndy XIHome
- Oct 3atBrooklyn
- Oct 10atDetroit
- Oct 14vsLoudounHome
- Oct 17vsPittsburghHome
- Oct 24atHartford
Updated Sep 6, 2026, 3:26 AM ET. Standings are rebuilt from ESPN results, regular season only. "Secures" numbers assume every rival wins out and any tie goes against Rhode Island unless the head-to-head series is already decided. Odds use a Poisson goals model with home advantage and no injury or form adjustments.